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There has been some minor erosion in the full ballot (within the margin), but head to head remains the largely unchanged:

  • The full ballot now stands with POTUS45 at 47, RD 24, others 16 and undecided 13 or POTUS45 +23. Last survey it was POTUS45 50, RD 22 or POTUS45 +28

    • While POTUS45 still wins voters very favorable to both by wide margin – 71/21 or +50, POTUS45 was winning them +71 last survey

    • POTUS45 still wins voters favorable to both 57/27 or +30, but was winning them +40

    • Voters focused on electability POTUS45 still wins them 46/32 or +14, but was winning them +26

    • GOP Men – POTUS45 was winning them +22, now is winning them +15

    • If you’ve seen MAGAINC ad, POTUS45 wins 56/21

    • If you’ve seen NBD ad POTUS45 wins 53/23

    • If you’ve seen both ads, POTUS45 wins 62/17

    • And if you’ve seen no ads POTUS45 wins, but only 42/25

    • If you watch Fox, CNN or Newsmax weekly + we win 57/22

    • If you recall anything about RD, we win 50/27

  • The H2H is 53/36, it was 53/34 last survey

    • 54% of POTUS45 voters say they are definitely committed (unchanged from last survey) while only 21% of RD say the same (down from 25% last survey)

    • Voters who vote for other candidates in the full ballot break for RD 57/23

    • We see similar softening with very favorables, favorables and electability voters.

    • If you’ve seen MAGAINCs ad it's 61/29

    • If you’ve seen NBD ads, it’s 61/33

    • If you seen both ads, its 69/23

    • If you’ve seen no ads, it is 48/38

Jean Carroll verdict is another dashed hope for POTUS’ opponents:

  • Overall, 73% say that the verdict was politically motivated and improper vs. 14% who say it was fair and proper

    • Among RD full ballot voters it is 76/9 and among full ballot undecideds it is 55/28

    • Among RD H2H voters it is 66/19 and among the undecideds it is 44/29

    • Among GOP Women it is 72/16

  • Fully, 71% say that the trial was a farce and an attempt to stop POTUS45 vs. 15% who said it wasn’t a farce and necessary

    • RD full ballot voters say farce by 76/9 margin and undecideds by a 49/32 margin

    • RD H2H voters say farce by a 66/20 margin and undecideds by a 37/41 margin

    • GOP Women say farce by a 72/18 margin

  • Overall 27% say the verdict makes them more likely to vote for POTUS45, 10% say less likely and 62% say it has no impact on their vote

    • Among RD full ballot voters it is 22 ML/11 LL and among undecideds it is 9 ML/17 LL with 72% saying no impact

    • Among RD H2H voters it is 15 ML/19 LL and among undecideds it ia 7/19 with 72% no impact

    • Among GOP Women it is 28 ML/8 LL and 68% no impact

Not a lot of change in overall base measures:

  • POTUS’ image largely unchanged at 76 fav/22 unfav. It was 78/19 last survey

  • His job approval is 89 approve/10 disapprove. It was 90/10 last survey

  • 76% see him as a conservative, it was 79% last survey

  • 66% say they would vote for POTUS45 (same as last survey) 20% say they wouldn’t with 13% unsure

  • And 63% say they feel they know everything about POTUS and his record which is up from 55% last survey

  • RD’s image has eroded some. It was 78/9, now it is 74/13.

  • 74% see him as a conservative, it ws 76% last survey

  • 55% say they would vote for RD (was 57% last survey) with 16% saying they won’t (same as last survey and 24% are unsure

  • Only 20% say they feel they know everything about RD and his record (up slight from 17% last survey).

  • Jobs/economy, immigration and inflation remain the top 3 issues. Important to point out that only 4% say woke issues

  • POTUS45 beats RD on all the comparisons except “is most honest” and he actually gained some ground on is the leader our country and party needs

  • No real change on most of the agree/disagree statements except, we lost ground on “POTUS45 did a good job, but time to move on.” Last survey it was 36 agree/58 disagree or -22, now it is 42/52 or -10.

    • We lost ground with voters favorable to both, undecideds, electability voters conservatives and GOP men.

  • We added a new statement which is RD is doing good job as Gov, but not ready to be Prez and that was split 45 agree/46 disagree

The info flow questions offer no real surprises:

  • 93% say they have SRH something about POTUS recently

    • Top recall mentions Carroll care 41%, Bragg indictment 21% and CNN town hall 18% top the list

    • Overall net impact was positive – 33 more likely/16 less likely and 50% no impact.

    • Among full ballot undecideds it was 11/25 and H2H ballot undecideds 8/34

  • 56% say they have SRH any ads (anything) about RD recently. Up from 47% last survey.

    • Top recall mention Disney 16%, cutting SS 14%, running for Prez 10%

    • Overall impact was also positive at 34/16,though down a bit from 35/10 last survey

    • Yet if you’ve seen our ads it is 21/21

Initial Bottom Line: While writ large the Carroll verdict doesn’t seem to matter, I wonder if it spooked some of the folks who like both of these guys and caused a slight shift. Only time will tell. That said, the race is largely stagnant, but the shifts in the “time to move on sentiment” and the slippage with the electability voters needs to be watched closely. It is clear we can cede no quarter to this guy as his numbers are still such that he can pull a Lazarus.

5-23 National GOP Pres Caucus.Primary LV Survey - Initial Slides
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